Well … they are not my predictions.

These predictions have been made by Graeme Newman of CFC Underwriting in the Advisen’s third Cyber Liability Journal (CLj). These predictions are from the view point of an insurer … but I find the first and the last prediction (mentioned in the beginning) to be  most interesting.

The first billion dollar loss…from hacking

As per the article, the largest loss so far was suffered in the Sony PlayStation hack which cost the company an estimated $170 million after hackers stole 77 million users’ private information.

This is the payout made by the insurer. This is what the author predicts:

As insurers get bolder, and newer less experienced carriers enter the market, it is inevitable that there will be at least one major billion dollar insured loss. Worryingly, this loss could hit one single carrier where they have failed to adequately protect against the huge aggregation risks that data breaches can present, either through poor policy drafting or inappropriately structured reinsurance programs.

BTW: Did you know that you could insure against Cyber Loss?

The first prediction is very interesting but the last one is even more so.

Facebook will no longer exist….

This is what the author says:

…at least not in its current form. Regulators and legislators across the globe will increasingly turn their attention to the use, or misuse, of personal data. Businesses with models premised upon the collection and sale of user data without explicit consent will increasingly be constrained and will have to rethink their business models.

So, what happens to Facebook’s? Their business model crucially depends on monetizing the 1 billion user base.

Also, see these analysis:

• How Overvalued Is Facebook Stock?
• Facebook: Still Overvalued?
• Is Facebook Overvalued? It Depends On How You Answer One Simple Question

Here is the full list

1. The first billion dollar loss
2. Policies will revolve around brand reputation
3. Everyone will buy cyber cover
4. Breach notification laws will evolve rapidly
5. Market consolidation
6. $8 billion market
7. Cyber crime will become the main focus
8. Cyber warfare
9. Cyber liability will remain a distinct class
10. Facebook will no longer exist….

Udayan Banerjee on Google+