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Troisième OS mobile : résultats du vote des internautes & analyse annonce BlackBerry 10

 

Quels sont les résultats des votes des lecteurs sur le classement des 5 candidats en présence, analysés dans mes deux textes précédents, forces en présence et vainqueurs possibles ?

J’en profite aussi pour réagir à l’annonce, très attendue, des nouveaux smartphones sous BlackBerry 10.

 

Le résultat des votes

Bourrage urnesAvant d’analyser les résultats, j’ai éliminé, comme je l’avais annoncé, des votes « multiples » réalisés par une même personne.

I y a eu, hélas, quelques cas de personnes qui ont voté 20 fois, 30 fois de suite pour le même OS, en l’espace de quelques minutes. Ces cas isolés ont concerné en priorité les deux OS mobiles propriétaires, Windows Phone et BlackBerry 10 ; est-ce une coïncidence ?

En arrêtant les votes après une semaine, il y avait plus de 300 votants ; merci à tous ceux qui ont exprimé leur opinion.

Résultats votes OS mobiles 322 réponsesSans plus attendre, voici les résultats des votes des internautes :

  • En tête, Firefox OS, avec 40 % des votes.
  • En deuxième place, et à quasi-égalité des voix, Windows Phone.
  • Loin derrière, les trois autres candidats, BlackBerry 10, Ubuntu mobile et Tizen ; aucun n’atteint la barre des 10 %.

5 0S mobiles Classement LNCe résultat est très proche de celui que j’avais proposé, et que je rappelle ici.

Il devrait donc y avoir une lutte indécise pour cette troisième place entre :

  • Un OS mobile propriétaire, Windows Phone, qui bénéficiera de toute la puissance marketing et financière de Microsoft.Un OS mobile Open Source, soutenu par la puissante communauté de la fondation Mozilla.
  • Firefox OS amphiPour confirmer cette force, il y avait, le Week-End dernier à Paris, une réunion de plus de cent développeurs qui ont travaillé sur Firefox OS, comme l’explique sur son blog Tristan Nitot, responsable Europe de la fondation Mozilla.

Cette course sera intéressante à suivre, surtout si l’on prend en compte le fait que Windows Phone a une petite année d’avance, ce qui est un avantage majeur dans un marché qui évolue aussi vite.

 

Premiers retours sur le lancement de BlackBerry 10

Press Conference BlackBerry 10Première annonce du CEO de RIM, Thorsten Heins, lors de la présentation de BlackBerry 10 : le changement de nom de RIM, Research in Motion, qui devient BlackBerry. C’est une bonne idée, car la notoriété du produit était très largement supérieure à celle de la marque.

La majorité des commentaires, ou , concernant la présentation et les démonstrations de l’OS mobile BlackBerry 10 sont positives et reconnaissent qu’il recolle au peloton des bons OS mobiles. 

Est-ce que cela sera suffisant pour réussir ? Les réponses sont le plus souvent négatives et je les résume en trois points :

  • Suffisant pour convaincre les utilisateurs actuels d’Android et iOS de changer : non.
  • Bien adapté à la demande des pays en émergences : non, car il n’en existera pas une version « low cost ».
  • Redonner confiance aux irréductibles de la marque en leur proposant un OS mobile au niveau de la concurrence : oui.

Les présentations les plus attendues étaient bien sur celles des deux smartphones et ils correspondaient aux « fuites » qui avaient eu lieu avant l’annonce :

  • Le Q10, avec un vrai clavier « BlackBerry », qui devrait ravir les inconditionnels de ce dispositif, et parait-il qu’il en reste beaucoup. Ce modèle ne sera pas disponible avant 2 ou 3 mois, et c’est, à mon avis, une grave erreur, car il était très attendu par tous les fidèles de la marque qui avaient vraiment envie de voir BlackBerry rester dans la course.
  • Le Z10, tactile, sans clavier physique, le plus proche des concurrents Android, iPhone et Windows Phone. Sa disponibilité varie selon les pays ; Canada et UK seront les premiers servis. Aux Etats-Unis, les grands opérateurs télécoms ont annoncé leur décision de le proposer, mais aucun calendrier précis, aucun prix n’ont été annoncé, ce qui est préoccupant.

En France, il est disponible, mais en précommande, chez Bouygues Telecom et SFR.

RIM Z10 compared to competitionComment se positionne le Z10 vis-à-vis de la concurrence ?

Sur le plan technique, c’est un bon smartphone, mais, comme le montre ce tableau très complet qui le compare à quelques-uns de ses concurrents déjà sur le marché, il n’apporte rien qui le distingue, que ce soit le processeur, la taille de l’écran, le poids, la puissance de la batterie...

Phone House BlackBerry Z10 - 580 €Sur le site de Phone House le prix, hors contrat, du Z10 est de 580 €.

Lors de la conférence de presse, aucun prix « nu » n’avait été annoncé, ce qui confirme que la compétitivité sur le prix n’est pas un point fort. 

Phone House Autres prixSur ce même site, le même jour, on trouve des concurrents Android et Windows Phone, sensiblement moins cher.

Le Nexus 4, dont on avait beaucoup parlé à cause des ruptures de stock sur le site Google Play, est à nouveau disponible, à 349 € dans la version 16 Go et 299 dans la version 8 Go C’est un concurrent très sérieux pour le Z10 et il est entre 40 % et 50 % moins cher.

Est-ce que le Z10, plus cher que la concurrence, aux caractéristiques techniques moyennes, avec un OS mobile tout neuf, non testé, et avec une liste d’applications plus courte que la concurrence peut devenir un bestseller ? La réponse est dans la question.

RIM Share Price 2 days after BB10 announcedUne autre réponse, celle des marchés boursiers, n’est pas plus encourageante ! Comme le montre ce graphique, le cours de bourse de BlackBerry a perdu plus de 20 % dans les 48 heures qui ont suivi la conférence de presse. Il avait un peu monté dans les heures qui précédaient la conférence de presse, mais l’euphorie a été de courte durée.

 

En résumé

Est-ce que cette annonce modifie mon pronostic sur l’avenir de BlackBerry ? Hélas, non, et les votes des internautes ne sont pas plus encourageants.

Catch à 4Nous devrions donc assister, entre 2013 et 2015, à une bataille à quatre :

  • Deux OS mobiles Open Source : Android et Firefox Mobile.
  • Deux OS mobiles propriétaires : iOS et Windows Phone. 

Le 25 février 2013, le plus grand événement mondial dédié au mobile, le Mobile World Congress, va s’ouvrir à Barcelone, et il devrait être riche en nouveautés.

Est-ce qu’elles pourraient redistribuer les cartes ? A suivre....

Read the original blog entry...

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Louis Naugès is Founder & President of Revevol, the first European Consulting organization 100% dedicated to SaaS and Cloud Computing. He has 30 years of IT experience. Very few people in Europe have his knowledge and expertise in Cloud & SaaS technologies and applications. He works directly with CIOs of very large organizations. Revevol is the first EMEA distributor of Google Apps and the largest worldwide organization deploying Google Apps is one of Revevol's clients.

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