Linux Containers Authors: Yeshim Deniz, Derek Weeks, Liz McMillan, Pat Romanski, Elizabeth White

Related Topics: Linux Containers

Linux Containers: Article

10 Linux predictions for 2003

Plus, a scorecard of Joe Barr's 2002 predictions.

(LinuxWorld) — It's that time of year again. Luckily, playing the fool is not a new game for me so making predictions about the future isn't that bad. As has now become traditional, let's start with a look back at 2002 to see how I did. Or should I say, how I can best distance myself from some of those picks.

First, the good news. I am in the running for DPY (Densest Prognosticator of the Year) for 2002. My nomination came as the direct result of misreading my crystal ball and opining that the MS "settlement" would be thrown out. I guess I should have known it would be justice that would be set aside, not the "settlement."

As far as my prognostication about a three-letter intelligence agency suffering a public and catastrophic loss because of using Windows software, I can't reveal any details of it here lest I be forced to kill you. It's safer for us all if I simply deny ever having predicted such a thing.

As for the rest, well, in a couple of cases I could have been a contender. If only there wasn't this built-in statute of limitations with annual predictions. In my 2001 predictions, for example, I said that survival of the HP/Bruce Perens merger was a 50-50 deal. They split this year, one year too late to count.

I also predicted that Tech TV would begin showing a Linux program. This one came so close to being right that I could just spit. I was interviewed about this prediction on a radio show last January. A petition to Tech TV was started to get them to do a regular Linux show. In fact, Chris DiBona of OSDN has become a regular guest on TechTV, appearing once or twice a month to talk Linux. That's about as close as you can get to the brass ring without actually grabbing it.

Another prediction was that at least one major OEM would start offering Linux on its desktop boxes. Wal-Mart is selling Linux PCs, but not from tier-one firms. Sorry, close but no cigar. A recent story in India's Financial Express (see resources for the link) suggests that IBM will soon start doing exactly that. This could be another one that just doesn't occur in the allotted time.

I did better on a couple of others. I predicted the Linux desktop would begin to appear in public places, and that has certainly happened all around the globe. Microsoft may go broke trying to stamp out the Linux revolution with its bribes in South America, India, and wherever else it can. I also said an AOL client for Linux would show up. There were rumors of a beta floating around, but I saw nothing but the smoke. Grumble, grumble. Just wait 'til next year!

One I did very well on was in Red Hat leading the "ragtag band of open source survivors" into the land of the black bottom line. It's official. Red Hat's financials (produced with GAAP, not Enronesque trickery) show a profit for the 3rd quarter 2002.

Saying goodbye to 2002 is not without a little sadness. The thing that pains me most about leaving 2002 is that I also have to leave behind my very special little friend Princess Angel Hair Pasta, a rescue kitten whose heart gave out. Princess was born with both heart and lung problems, and wasn't expected to live more than six months. Nevertheless, her condition never kept her from spreading joy. She was quite a fighter, living three times longer than expected. Rest in peace, Princess. You won't be forgotten anytime soon.

Now let's look ahead to 2003

  1. Mandrake will merge with another firm looking for a way to stay alive. Users can help keep the company afloat for only so long. Maybe it will cut expenses by joining United Linux. Maybe it will get together with its Latin language sister firm Connectiva. Or maybe Microsoft will step forward with a smile to offer the struggling distribution much needed cash in order to get in the game.
  2. Matthew Szulik and Red Hat will split the blanket. The reason will be opposing views on how to be true to the spirit of Linux and still make a profit. That conflict -- if not resolved -- could prove disastrous.
  3. The pace of Linux adoption by governmental/educational entities around the world will continue to increase. Even in the United States, where politicos are traded on the commodities market.
  4. Microsoft will release a Linux version of Microsoft Office, but it always trail the current Windows version by at least one release. The Redmond monopoly will do this even as it continues to prowl around the edges of the community, looking for some way to gain leverage with developers to control the future of Linux. Of course, if it ends up with a share of Mandrake, it could make MS Office run only on that distribution and have instant monopoly leverage.
  5. At least one state will pass legislation making the Business Software Alliance's campaign of terror and extortion on behalf of Microsoft and others illegal. Too bad we are a "civilized" nation. I think piñata justice is called for in this case.
  6. A Loki-like replacement will appear on the scene to bring top-flight games to the growing population of Linux desktops once more. By year's end, Linux users will no longer be treated as second-rate by the gaming community.
  7. Adobe will announce plans to port PhotoShop to Linux. Adobe will find it tough gaining traction with the Linux crowd, however, because of their involvement in the arrest and prosecution of Dmitri Sklyarov under the much-hated DMCA.
  8. Linus Torvalds will "retire" from Transmeta and not immediately seek new employment. Instead, he will spend more time with his family, and of course in caring for the kernel.
  9. Bill Gates will admit publicly that not only has he been a closet Linux user for years, he will admit it is better/stronger/faster than Windows. He will also confess that he never has told the truth when speaking in an official capacity for Microsoft, and plead for forgiveness because of childhood hardships.
  10. The revolution will continue apace. For the third year in a row, I close with this prediction, just to make sure I get at least one out of ten correct. No matter how dopey or off the mark any of my previous nine shots in the dark turn out to be, Linux and the free/open source revolution will continue to gain users and support around the globe.

There it is. A whole year's worth of silliness rolled into one column. I'll close by wishing all of you, whether Linux user or still a wannabe, a safe, happy, and prosperous 2003.

More Stories By Joe Barr

Joe Barr is a freelance journalist covering Linux, open source and network security. His 'Version Control' column has been a regular feature of Linux.SYS-CON.com since its inception. As far as we know, he is the only living journalist whose works have appeared both in phrack, the legendary underground zine, and IBM Personal Systems Magazine.

Comments (0)

Share your thoughts on this story.

Add your comment
You must be signed in to add a comment. Sign-in | Register

In accordance with our Comment Policy, we encourage comments that are on topic, relevant and to-the-point. We will remove comments that include profanity, personal attacks, racial slurs, threats of violence, or other inappropriate material that violates our Terms and Conditions, and will block users who make repeated violations. We ask all readers to expect diversity of opinion and to treat one another with dignity and respect.

@ThingsExpo Stories
SYS-CON Events announced today that MobiDev, a client-oriented software development company, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place October 31-November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. MobiDev is a software company that develops and delivers turn-key mobile apps, websites, web services, and complex software systems for startups and enterprises. Since 2009 it has grown from a small group of passionate engineers and business...
SYS-CON Events announced today that GrapeUp, the leading provider of rapid product development at the speed of business, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place October 31-November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Grape Up is a software company, specialized in cloud native application development and professional services related to Cloud Foundry PaaS. With five expert teams that operate in various sectors of the market acr...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Enzu will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st Int\ernational Cloud Expo®, which will take place October 31-November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Enzu’s mission is to be the leading provider of enterprise cloud solutions worldwide. Enzu enables online businesses to use its IT infrastructure to their competitive advantage. By offering a suite of proven hosting and management services, Enzu wants companies to focus on the core of their ...
New competitors, disruptive technologies, and growing expectations are pushing every business to both adopt and deliver new digital services. This ‘Digital Transformation’ demands rapid delivery and continuous iteration of new competitive services via multiple channels, which in turn demands new service delivery techniques – including DevOps. In this power panel at @DevOpsSummit 20th Cloud Expo, moderated by DevOps Conference Co-Chair Andi Mann, panelists examined how DevOps helps to meet the de...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Cloud Academy named "Bronze Sponsor" of 21st International Cloud Expo which will take place October 31 - November 2, 2017 at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Cloud Academy is the industry’s most innovative, vendor-neutral cloud technology training platform. Cloud Academy provides continuous learning solutions for individuals and enterprise teams for Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud Platform, and the most popular cloud com...
We build IoT infrastructure products - when you have to integrate different devices, different systems and cloud you have to build an application to do that but we eliminate the need to build an application. Our products can integrate any device, any system, any cloud regardless of protocol," explained Peter Jung, Chief Product Officer at Pulzze Systems, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA
SYS-CON Events announced today that IBM has been named “Diamond Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 21st Cloud Expo, which will take place on October 31 through November 2nd 2017 at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, California.
In his session at Cloud Expo, Alan Winters, an entertainment executive/TV producer turned serial entrepreneur, presented a success story of an entrepreneur who has both suffered through and benefited from offshore development across multiple businesses: The smart choice, or how to select the right offshore development partner Warning signs, or how to minimize chances of making the wrong choice Collaboration, or how to establish the most effective work processes Budget control, or how to ma...
With major technology companies and startups seriously embracing Cloud strategies, now is the perfect time to attend 21st Cloud Expo October 31 - November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center, CA, and June 12-14, 2018, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY, and learn what is going on, contribute to the discussions, and ensure that your enterprise is on the right path to Digital Transformation.
SYS-CON Events announced today that CA Technologies has been named "Platinum Sponsor" of SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place October 31-November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. CA Technologies helps customers succeed in a future where every business - from apparel to energy - is being rewritten by software. From planning to development to management to security, CA creates software that fuels transformation for companies in the applic...
Multiple data types are pouring into IoT deployments. Data is coming in small packages as well as enormous files and data streams of many sizes. Widespread use of mobile devices adds to the total. In this power panel at @ThingsExpo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, panelists looked at the tools and environments that are being put to use in IoT deployments, as well as the team skills a modern enterprise IT shop needs to keep things running, get a handle on all this data, and deliver...
In his session at @ThingsExpo, Eric Lachapelle, CEO of the Professional Evaluation and Certification Board (PECB), provided an overview of various initiatives to certify the security of connected devices and future trends in ensuring public trust of IoT. Eric Lachapelle is the Chief Executive Officer of the Professional Evaluation and Certification Board (PECB), an international certification body. His role is to help companies and individuals to achieve professional, accredited and worldwide re...
Amazon started as an online bookseller 20 years ago. Since then, it has evolved into a technology juggernaut that has disrupted multiple markets and industries and touches many aspects of our lives. It is a relentless technology and business model innovator driving disruption throughout numerous ecosystems. Amazon’s AWS revenues alone are approaching $16B a year making it one of the largest IT companies in the world. With dominant offerings in Cloud, IoT, eCommerce, Big Data, AI, Digital Assista...
No hype cycles or predictions of zillions of things here. IoT is big. You get it. You know your business and have great ideas for a business transformation strategy. What comes next? Time to make it happen. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Jay Mason, Associate Partner at M&S Consulting, presented a step-by-step plan to develop your technology implementation strategy. He discussed the evaluation of communication standards and IoT messaging protocols, data analytics considerations, edge-to-cloud tec...
"When we talk about cloud without compromise what we're talking about is that when people think about 'I need the flexibility of the cloud' - it's the ability to create applications and run them in a cloud environment that's far more flexible,” explained Matthew Finnie, CTO of Interoute, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 20th Cloud Expo, held June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY.
IoT solutions exploit operational data generated by Internet-connected smart “things” for the purpose of gaining operational insight and producing “better outcomes” (for example, create new business models, eliminate unscheduled maintenance, etc.). The explosive proliferation of IoT solutions will result in an exponential growth in the volume of IoT data, precipitating significant Information Governance issues: who owns the IoT data, what are the rights/duties of IoT solutions adopters towards t...
With the introduction of IoT and Smart Living in every aspect of our lives, one question has become relevant: What are the security implications? To answer this, first we have to look and explore the security models of the technologies that IoT is founded upon. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Nevi Kaja, a Research Engineer at Ford Motor Company, discussed some of the security challenges of the IoT infrastructure and related how these aspects impact Smart Living. The material was delivered interac...
The Internet giants are fully embracing AI. All the services they offer to their customers are aimed at drawing a map of the world with the data they get. The AIs from these companies are used to build disruptive approaches that cannot be used by established enterprises, which are threatened by these disruptions. However, most leaders underestimate the effect this will have on their businesses. In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, Rene Buest, Director Market Research & Technology Evangelism at Ara...
When growing capacity and power in the data center, the architectural trade-offs between server scale-up vs. scale-out continue to be debated. Both approaches are valid: scale-out adds multiple, smaller servers running in a distributed computing model, while scale-up adds fewer, more powerful servers that are capable of running larger workloads. It’s worth noting that there are additional, unique advantages that scale-up architectures offer. One big advantage is large memory and compute capacity...
Artificial intelligence, machine learning, neural networks. We’re in the midst of a wave of excitement around AI such as hasn’t been seen for a few decades. But those previous periods of inflated expectations led to troughs of disappointment. Will this time be different? Most likely. Applications of AI such as predictive analytics are already decreasing costs and improving reliability of industrial machinery. Furthermore, the funding and research going into AI now comes from a wide range of com...