Welcome!

Linux Containers Authors: Liz McMillan, Elizabeth White, AppDynamics Blog, Stackify Blog, Pat Romanski

Related Topics: Linux Containers

Linux Containers: Article

10 Linux predictions for 2002

Plus, a scorecard of Joe Barr's 2001 predictions.

(LinuxWorld) -- The end of the year. Traditionally, this is a time to pause and reflect on the happenings of the old year as well as the possibilities for the new one. Last year at this time I wrote my first "crystal ball" piece and made ten predictions for the year 2000. Looking back on them now (the URL is given in Resources), I'll say that while I did no better than a coin toss, it could have been much worse.

I'll give myself the Golden "Hammer on Nail" award for predicting that " the Microsoft appeal of Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson's rulings will result in his findings of law being overturned, but his findings of fact will stand. The breakup of Microsoft will be abandoned on appeal, and the lower court will be ordered to come up with new, less drastic remedies. Under the Bush administration, the DOJ will lose its zeal for pursuing the case to a just conclusion, and no substantial or effective remedies will ever be implemented."

I think I also deserve a Silver "Close But No Cigar" medallion for speculating on a merger between VA and Red Hat. The Cardinal Fedora did pick up some VA assets in the form of the migration of management and workers from the VA Professional Services division to Red Hat, but it wasn't an acquisition or merger.

Finally, I earned the Bronze "Low Light Bulb" award for a pair of big clunkers: suggesting that Linus Torvalds would step away from active participation in kernel development on the one hand and that 2001 would be the year that the Linux desktop became a standard fixture.

In spite my 2001 batting average, I'm back this year to once again gaze into my crystal ball and offer my thoughts on what's coming for Linux in the year 2002.

  1. Linux business sector will emerge from slump

    Red Hat will continue to increase market share, sales and profits, leading the ragtag band of open source survivors out of the wilderness of the recession to the land of black bottom lines.

  2. Linux desktop will appear in public places

    The Linux desktop will achieve a measurable market share on consumer machines and an even larger share of desktops for business and government. The growth will be fueled by both continuing refinement and improvement of the desktop, the growing dissatisfaction with Windows performance, security, and pricing, and the easing of Microsoft licensing restrictions.

  3. Linux preloads will follow suit

    Both pure Linux and dual-boot Linux/Windows machines from top-tier OEMs will start to appear in the marketplace as Microsoft ever so slightly begins to loosen its death-grip on the preload marketplace.

  4. Landmark antitrust case will drag on

    The Microsoft/DOJ "settlement" will be tossed out by the judge as being completely one-sided and the court will compromise between the demands of the holdout states and the DOJ. Microsoft will appeal the new finding to the Supreme Court since it would -- unlike the terms of the current "settlement" -- actually prevent them from continuing many of their illegal business practices.

  5. U.S. spy-secrets will be revealed

    A major three-letter intelligence agency will suffer a public and catastrophic breach of classified data because of exploits in Windows XP and ban its use completely. Previous security incidents involving the loss of classified data will also be revealed. Eyes (and heads) will roll.

  6. Microsoft will be expelled, Linux will be installed

    At least one global megacorp will announce a complete migration away from all Microsoft Windows platforms to an interoperable mix of Unix, Mac and Linux platforms.

  7. Linux in prime time slot

    TechTV will add a pure Linux show to its lineup. Hey, it couldn't hurt. They laid off 135 employees in November, some say as the result of losing touch with their geek side. Leo Laporte has been Linux friendly for years, to the point of having Linus Torvalds as a guest. In 2002, Linux earns its own spot in the lineup.

  8. You have (secure) mail

    AOL will stun the world by releasing a beta AOL client for Linux. This event will be marked by both howls of protest and celebration. Command-line interface (CLI) diehards will proclaim it to be the death of Linux. Most will simply acknowledge its growing popularity.

  9. Darker Image PR firm to debut

    Theo de Raadt of OpenBSD fame, Arpad Gereoffy of the MPlayer project, and Brett Glass will team up to form a new PR firm called Darker Image. The concept is simple, like reverse psychology. For a fee, the team will act as advocates for your competition. Rumors have it that the dynamic trio is already in discussions with Redmond about championing the Free Software Foundation.

  10. The revolution will continue as scheduled

    Just like last year, my final prediction drives home a simple point. Whether any of the previous predictions come true or not, it's going to be another banner year for GNU/Linux. It's popularity in the server, desktop, and embedded spaces will continue to grow.

OK, there you have it. I've gone out on a limb for the second year in a row with my ten shots in the dark. Do any of them ring true with you? Write and let me know. Better yet, dare to do the same and let me know what you see for Linux in the year ahead.

Have a great, safe, happy, and prosperous New Year!

More Stories By Joe Barr

Joe Barr is a freelance journalist covering Linux, open source and network security. His 'Version Control' column has been a regular feature of Linux.SYS-CON.com since its inception. As far as we know, he is the only living journalist whose works have appeared both in phrack, the legendary underground zine, and IBM Personal Systems Magazine.

Comments (0)

Share your thoughts on this story.

Add your comment
You must be signed in to add a comment. Sign-in | Register

In accordance with our Comment Policy, we encourage comments that are on topic, relevant and to-the-point. We will remove comments that include profanity, personal attacks, racial slurs, threats of violence, or other inappropriate material that violates our Terms and Conditions, and will block users who make repeated violations. We ask all readers to expect diversity of opinion and to treat one another with dignity and respect.


IoT & Smart Cities Stories
IT professionals are also embracing the reality of Serverless architectures, which are critical to developing and operating real-time applications and services. Serverless is particularly important as enterprises of all sizes develop and deploy Internet of Things (IoT) initiatives. Serverless and Kubernetes are great examples of continuous, rapid pace of change in enterprise IT. They also raise a number of critical issues and questions about employee training, development processes, and opera...
This month @nodexl announced that ServerlessSUMMIT & DevOpsSUMMIT own the world's top three most influential Kubernetes domains which are more influential than LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube, Medium, Infoworld and Microsoft combined. NodeXL is a template for Microsoft® Excel® (2007, 2010, 2013 and 2016) on Windows (XP, Vista, 7, 8, 10) that lets you enter a network edge list into a workbook, click a button, see a network graph, and get a detailed summary report, all in the familiar environment of...
At CloudEXPO Silicon Valley, June 24-26, 2019, Digital Transformation (DX) is a major focus with expanded DevOpsSUMMIT and FinTechEXPO programs within the DXWorldEXPO agenda. Successful transformation requires a laser focus on being data-driven and on using all the tools available that enable transformation if they plan to survive over the long term. A total of 88% of Fortune 500 companies from a generation ago are now out of business. Only 12% still survive. Similar percentages are found throug...
AI and machine learning disruption for Enterprises started happening in the areas such as IT operations management (ITOPs) and Cloud management and SaaS apps. In 2019 CIOs will see disruptive solutions for Cloud & Devops, AI/ML driven IT Ops and Cloud Ops. Customers want AI-driven multi-cloud operations for monitoring, detection, prevention of disruptions. Disruptions cause revenue loss, unhappy users, impacts brand reputation etc.
At CloudEXPO Silicon Valley, June 24-26, 2019, Digital Transformation (DX) is a major focus with expanded DevOpsSUMMIT and FinTechEXPO programs within the DXWorldEXPO agenda. Successful transformation requires a laser focus on being data-driven and on using all the tools available that enable transformation if they plan to survive over the long term. A total of 88% of Fortune 500 companies from a generation ago are now out of business. Only 12% still survive. Similar percentages are found throug...
Atmosera delivers modern cloud services that maximize the advantages of cloud-based infrastructures. Offering private, hybrid, and public cloud solutions, Atmosera works closely with customers to engineer, deploy, and operate cloud architectures with advanced services that deliver strategic business outcomes. Atmosera's expertise simplifies the process of cloud transformation and our 20+ years of experience managing complex IT environments provides our customers with the confidence and trust tha...
The Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) is a non-profit organization that provides business support services to companies expanding to Japan. With the support of JETRO's dedicated staff, clients can incorporate their business; receive visa, immigration, and HR support; find dedicated office space; identify local government subsidies; get tailored market studies; and more.
At CloudEXPO Silicon Valley, June 24-26, 2019, Digital Transformation (DX) is a major focus with expanded DevOpsSUMMIT and FinTechEXPO programs within the DXWorldEXPO agenda. Successful transformation requires a laser focus on being data-driven and on using all the tools available that enable transformation if they plan to survive over the long term. A total of 88% of Fortune 500 companies from a generation ago are now out of business. Only 12% still survive. Similar percentages are found throug...
As you know, enterprise IT conversation over the past year have often centered upon the open-source Kubernetes container orchestration system. In fact, Kubernetes has emerged as the key technology -- and even primary platform -- of cloud migrations for a wide variety of organizations. Kubernetes is critical to forward-looking enterprises that continue to push their IT infrastructures toward maximum functionality, scalability, and flexibility. As they do so, IT professionals are also embr...
In his general session at 19th Cloud Expo, Manish Dixit, VP of Product and Engineering at Dice, discussed how Dice leverages data insights and tools to help both tech professionals and recruiters better understand how skills relate to each other and which skills are in high demand using interactive visualizations and salary indicator tools to maximize earning potential. Manish Dixit is VP of Product and Engineering at Dice. As the leader of the Product, Engineering and Data Sciences team at D...