Welcome!

Linux Containers Authors: Jyoti Bansal, Elizabeth White, Yeshim Deniz, Liz McMillan, Pat Romanski

Related Topics: Linux Containers

Linux Containers: Article

Linux predictions for 2001

What's in store for Linux this year? Look no further than Joe Barr's crystal ball

Happy New Year, everyone! I feel a little silly typing that greeting this morning, since it's still a couple of weeks before January, but not as silly as I do about writing the rest of the column. It must be a disease of some kind, or a rite of passage for journalists. What else could explain the strange notion that we must, in the last few harried weeks of the year, put on our turbans, hold an envelope over our third eye like Johnny Carson, and make predictions?

So why am I doing it? I wish I could blame my editors, but they have too much sense to suggest such a column. The best justification I can come up with is: "Hey, everyone else is doing it, so why not?" I know for a fact that some of my predictions are the result of vivid dreams I had recently after eating a late snack containing some particularly potent habanero peppers. So please don't take my predictions too seriously; I certainly don't. With that disclaimer out of the way, here it is: my first -- and very possibly my last -- attempt to forecast Linux fortunes in the year ahead.

  1. It's too easy to just say that kernel version 2.4 will officially be released in 2001, so I'll go beyond that. I'll predict that it kicks Windows 2000's butt in benchmarks on multiprocessor and multiple-NIC machines. And, of course, it will do the same on uniprocessor systems with only a single network interface card as well.
  2. Given the result of the presidential election, I predict that the Microsoft appeal of Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson's rulings will result in his findings of law being overturned, but his findings of fact will stand. The breakup of Microsoft will be abandoned on appeal, and the lower court will be ordered to come up with new, less drastic remedies. Under the Bush administration, the DOJ will lose its zeal for pursuing the case to a just conclusion, and no substantial or effective remedies will ever be implemented. But that outcome will in no way impede Linux's growing popularity. It's simply too late to save the dynasty now, regardless of what King George might want to do for King Bill.
  3. 2001 will be a year of consolidation within the Linux industry. Not only will the number of distributions shrink through attrition and merger, but the number of hardware and service firms will be reduced as well. The biggest wedding will be between Red Hat and VA Linux, as the two seek to become the IBM of Linux: a single source for hardware, software, and support. Not to be outdone, SuSE and Atipa will follow suit to keep pace with their fedora-wearing rivals. The two entities formed by those megamergers will duke it out to become the Linux superstar around the globe.
  4. KDE and GNOME will not merge, but both will continue to improve their already fine platforms. Further, neither one will become the default desktop environment for Linux. Choice will remain the default for the Linux desktop, and many will find happiness in a lightweight environment.
  5. Linus Torvalds will step back from active participation in the kernel-hacking sphere and pass the baton to Alan Cox. Linus will not disappear; he will just move into the role of community leader. Kernel development will slow at first, but new testing methodologies and kernel debuggers will decrease the elapsed time from first code to final release. Linus will remain the most loved person in the Linux movement.
  6. One or more of the top five PC makers will begin offering Linux desktop machines for sale in retail outlets, perhaps in a dual-boot configuration. This will not occur until PC makers feel safe from retaliation by Microsoft, but when it does happen, it won't be long until others follow that lead and the last bastion of the unregulated monopoly begins to fade away.
  7. Governmental adoption of Linux around the globe and at all levels of government will increase. As it does, Linux will find a backdoor to the desktop world dominated by Microsoft. The BSA's campaign of terror (see Resources for a link) will backfire, and, instead of serving to boost Microsoft's sagging revenues, it will simply increase the pace of migration away from the monopoly. By the end of the year, we'll all laugh about the old days when Linux was considered only a server platform.
  8. Bruce Perens will really shake some things up at Hewlett-Packard. Asking Bruce to do something is kind of like asking Ross Perot to do something: don't ask either unless you really want it done. Texas asked Perot for help with public education a few years ago, and he immediately attacked the core of the problem: too much spending on high school football and too little on teachers and books. Thus was born the "no pass/no play" rule, which put a burr under the saddle of many a high school coach -- not to mention millions of fans and the families of players. The real question here is whether Bruce and HP will still be together at the end of the year. If they are, it'll be a banner year for Linux at HP, as Perens described his role there to me as "challenging HP management" to support open source software and participate in its development. Fifty-fifty on him surviving the year. Ditto on HP.
  9. Linux stocks will thrive. They've crashed to nearly nothing after their wild IPO launches, but as the technology sector of the economy rebounds from the bottom, and as weaker firms fold or merge with stronger ones, Linux stocks as a group will do well in 2001. They will regain some but not all of their IPO values, and Red Hat will lead the way with its first post-IPO profits.
  10. Regardless of the accuracy of the previous nine predictions, my last one is simply this: it's going to be another great year for Linux.

Best wishes to you and yours!

More Stories By Joe Barr

Joe Barr is a freelance journalist covering Linux, open source and network security. His 'Version Control' column has been a regular feature of Linux.SYS-CON.com since its inception. As far as we know, he is the only living journalist whose works have appeared both in phrack, the legendary underground zine, and IBM Personal Systems Magazine.

Comments (0)

Share your thoughts on this story.

Add your comment
You must be signed in to add a comment. Sign-in | Register

In accordance with our Comment Policy, we encourage comments that are on topic, relevant and to-the-point. We will remove comments that include profanity, personal attacks, racial slurs, threats of violence, or other inappropriate material that violates our Terms and Conditions, and will block users who make repeated violations. We ask all readers to expect diversity of opinion and to treat one another with dignity and respect.


@ThingsExpo Stories
In order to meet the rapidly changing demands of today’s customers, companies are continually forced to redefine their business strategies in order to meet these needs, stay relevant and continue to see profitable growth. IoT deployment and development is integral in this transformation, and today businesses are increasingly seeing the value of investing their resources into IoT deployments. These technologies are able increase ROI through projects such as connecting supply chains or enabling sm...
With major technology companies and startups seriously embracing Cloud strategies, now is the perfect time to attend @CloudExpo | @ThingsExpo, June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY and October 31 - November 2, 2017, Santa Clara Convention Center, CA. Learn what is going on, contribute to the discussions, and ensure that your enterprise is on the right path to Digital Transformation.
Multiple data types are pouring into IoT deployments. Data is coming in small packages as well as enormous files and data streams of many sizes. Widespread use of mobile devices adds to the total. In this power panel at @ThingsExpo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, panelists will look at the tools and environments that are being put to use in IoT deployments, as well as the team skills a modern enterprise IT shop needs to keep things running, get a handle on all this data, and deli...
SYS-CON Events announced today that SoftLayer, an IBM Company, has been named “Gold Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 18th Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York, New York. SoftLayer, an IBM Company, provides cloud infrastructure as a service from a growing number of data centers and network points of presence around the world. SoftLayer’s customers range from Web startups to global enterprises.
In his opening keynote at 20th Cloud Expo, Michael Maximilien, Research Scientist, Architect, and Engineer at IBM, will motivate why realizing the full potential of the cloud and social data requires artificial intelligence. By mixing Cloud Foundry and the rich set of Watson services, IBM's Bluemix is the best cloud operating system for enterprises today, providing rapid development and deployment of applications that can take advantage of the rich catalog of Watson services to help drive insigh...
Existing Big Data solutions are mainly focused on the discovery and analysis of data. The solutions are scalable and highly available but tedious when swapping in and swapping out occurs in disarray and thrashing takes place. The resolution for thrashing through machine learning algorithms and support nomenclature is through simple techniques. Organizations that have been collecting large customer data are increasingly seeing the need to use the data for swapping in and out and thrashing occurs ...
SYS-CON Events announced today that delaPlex will exhibit at SYS-CON's @CloudExpo, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. delaPlex pioneered Software Development as a Service (SDaaS), which provides scalable resources to build, test, and deploy software. It’s a fast and more reliable way to develop a new product or expand your in-house team.
With major technology companies and startups seriously embracing Cloud strategies, now is the perfect time to attend @CloudExpo | @ThingsExpo, June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY and October 31 - November 2, 2017, Santa Clara Convention Center, CA. Learn what is going on, contribute to the discussions, and ensure that your enterprise is on the right path to Digital Transformation.
SYS-CON Events announced today that EARP Integration will exhibit at SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. EARP Integration is a passionate software house. Since its inception in 2009 the company successfully delivers smart solutions for cities and factories that start their digital transformation. EARP provides bespoke solutions like, for example, advanced enterprise portals, business intelligence systems an...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Progress, a global leader in application development, has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Enterprises today are rapidly adopting the cloud, while continuing to retain business-critical/sensitive data inside the firewall. This is creating two separate data silos – one inside the firewall and the other outside the firewall. Cloud ISVs oft...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Outscale, a global pure play Infrastructure as a Service provider and strategic partner of Dassault Systèmes, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Founded in 2010, Outscale simplifies infrastructure complexities and boosts the business agility of its customers. Outscale delivers a secure, reliable and industrial strength solution for its customers, which in...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Cloud Academy will exhibit at SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Cloud Academy is the industry’s most innovative, vendor-neutral cloud technology training platform. Cloud Academy provides continuous learning solutions for individuals and enterprise teams for Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud Platform, and the most popular cloud computing technologies. Ge...
As cloud adoption continues to transform business, today's global enterprises are challenged with managing a growing amount of information living outside of the data center. The rapid adoption of IoT and increasingly mobile workforce are exacerbating the problem. Ensuring secure data sharing and efficient backup poses capacity and bandwidth considerations as well as policy and regulatory compliance issues.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Interoute has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Interoute is the owner operator of Europe's largest network and a global cloud services platform, which encompasses over 70,000 km of lit fiber, 15 data centers, 17 virtual data centers and 33 colocation centers, with connections to 195 additional partner data centers. Our full-service Unifie...
SYS-CON Events announced today that delaPlex will exhibit at SYS-CON's @ThingsExpo, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. delaPlex pioneered Software Development as a Service (SDaaS), which provides scalable resources to build, test, and deploy software. It’s a fast and more reliable way to develop a new product or expand your in-house team.
The 21st International Cloud Expo has announced that its Call for Papers is open. Cloud Expo, to be held October 31 - November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, brings together Cloud Computing, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps, Digital Transformation, Machine Learning and WebRTC to one location. With cloud computing driving a higher percentage of enterprise IT budgets every year, it becomes increasingly important to plant your flag in this fast-expanding busin...
Internet of @ThingsExpo, taking place October 31 - November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with the 21st International Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. @ThingsExpo Silicon Valley Call for Papers is now open.
Amazon started as an online bookseller 20 years ago. Since then, it has evolved into a technology juggernaut that has disrupted multiple markets and industries and touches many aspects of our lives. It is a relentless technology and business model innovator driving disruption throughout numerous ecosystems. Amazon’s AWS revenues alone are approaching $16B a year making it one of the largest IT companies in the world. With dominant offerings in Cloud, IoT, eCommerce, Big Data, AI, Digital Assis...
DevOps is often described as a combination of technology and culture. Without both, DevOps isn't complete. However, applying the culture to outdated technology is a recipe for disaster; as response times grow and connections between teams are delayed by technology, the culture will die. A Nutanix Enterprise Cloud has many benefits that provide the needed base for a true DevOps paradigm.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Progress, a global leader in application development, has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Enterprises today are rapidly adopting the cloud, while continuing to retain business-critical/sensitive data inside the firewall. This is creating two separate data silos – one inside the firewall and the other outside the firewall. Cloud ISVs ofte...