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The Perfect Storm of Disruption

Broadband + Wi-Fi + Linux = new Internet access device opportunities

It's been several years since information appliances came and went. Devices like 3Com's Audrey and the Netpliance I-Opener were simplified computers, designed for Internet access. They didn't last for a variety of reasons - proprietary service offerings, slow performance, and prices that were about the same as low-end computers. But the underlying value proposition always appealed to users: simple, easy-to-use machines designed for information consumption.

In the time since first-generation information appliances, three main factors have coalesced into a "perfect storm" of opportunity for a second generation. The widespread deployment of affordable broadband; the emergence of simple, affordable, high-speed wireless networking; and the maturity - and security - of the Linux operating system all mark significant improvements over the shortcomings of earlier devices. More important, they enable an "ecosystem" of hardware, software, and service companies to develop a broad variety of solutions around open standards. This is shaping up to be a classic case of "disruptive technology."

Let's look at each of the major contributing factors.

Broadband

According to a recent NetRatings survey, a little more than half of all Internet-connected households in the U.S. have broadband. That's beyond critical mass. Many small businesses use cable and DSL connections too. From a user perspective, the big appeal of broadband isn't as much about the speed as it is about the always-on nature of the connection. This means immediate gratification. I have a question; I type it in; I get my answer. My e-mail comes in constantly. No more listening to the cat-retching sounds of modems negotiating while waiting through the interminable dial-up process, and I don't tie up my phone line.

Affordable, solid, easy-to-use equipment makes deployment a no-brainer. Setting up a network or (more accurately, in many cases) simply sharing a high-speed connection is within the range of the technically challenged. Heck, you can buy a router at Wal-Mart.

Wi-Fi

Running wires has always been inconvenient, especially in homes. The common geek method of running Cat5 around the perimeter of the room and up the side of the stairway to get to the upstairs computer is not an aesthetically pleasing solution. The emergence of the 802.11b and, more important, g standards enabled hardware vendors to roll out simple, secure, and affordable wireless solutions. Performance is more than adequate, and the wires are gone.

One obvious benefit is to mobile workers. Wi-Fi-based solutions are popping up all over, from Starbucks to Schlotzsky's Deli. I recently enjoyed free wireless connections from the Best Western Hotel in Gillette, Wyoming - an unexpected treat. Another advantage is being able to locate stationary information stations (PCs or appliances) wherever they are needed without regard for the location of the network connection. In business, this could mean deploying devices to where the staff is - the sales floor, the shipping dock, and the back office - without pulling cables.

Linux

Due to its very nature and architecture, Linux is an ideal solution for a variety of computing tasks. Much has been written about displacing Microsoft products in servers and on the desktop, and indeed there is a lot to write about in that space. But Linux also enables a universe of other computing devices that aren't PCs. Ranging from embedded solutions through thin clients to fully self-contained, specialized computing solutions, developers can take the kernel, customize it, add on the necessary libraries and application software (only what is required), tailor the user interface, and - voilà! - easy-to-use, affordable, unique solutions. And again by its very nature and architecture, Linux is highly resistant to the viruses and worms that are the scourge of users everywhere.

The Next Generation: Simple Network Access Devices Powered by Linux

Here's an idea for a simple device: a low-cost PC that runs Mozilla - e-mail, browsing (with all necessary plug-ins), and a simple composition facility for the occasional letter or Web page. Throw in a calendaring option, too, and you meet the basic needs of most home PC users. In addition, built-in Wi-Fi would allow you to take your device wherever you like in the home. It could either have a hard drive or run from flash memory. It could use a USB thumbdrive for storage that allows you to easily shuttle documents between home and work. It could have an external monitor or be in a self-contained unit. It could be engineered to consume little power, which would allow silent operation. It would turn on instantly.

Since Linux runs on various platforms, designers wouldn't be constrained to particular chips. ARM, PowerPC, and other processors might be better suited than the latest x gigahertz 64-bit processor. Design cycles could last years instead of months. Value would shift from the OS and CPU to the whole product/solution.

These could be sold as stand-alone units at retail. Since they are all standards based, they could hook up to anyone's service. They could be mass customized for a variety of environments and user segments. They could also be sold as part of an ISP solution or a Web services solution.

Conclusion

The PC has been an incredible machine that has transformed our lives. But it's a one-size-fits-all solution that is overkill for a lot of what people need. The confluence of broadband, Wi-Fi, and, most important, Linux create the "perfect storm" of disruption for the next generation of information access devices.

More Stories By Gregory S. Hopper

Gregory S. Hopper is the president of Netanium, LLC, in Raleigh, NC, specializing in creating marketing strategies for emerging technologies. He managed several strategy and development groups at IBM, including a usability group, and was an original cofounder of Netpliance. Greg uses Linux daily in his work and has deployed a Linux-based network at home.

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